Trump and the Polls
I have talked with more than a few people who are completely shocked that Trump is the leading Republican candidate for President. Even more mind boggling for many, in some polls Trump is leading President Biden in a hypothetical match in 2024.
First of all, following are a few reasons why many including myself wonder why anyone would vote for Trump.
Under Trump the federal deficit increased by almost $8 Trillion. Prior to his election in 2016, a campaign promise was he would reduce the deficit. Not so much.
He cut corporate taxes which was one reason for the exploding deficit during his term. Many corporations used the tax savings to buy back their stock increasing the share price. Essentially the corporate tax cuts was a wealth transfer to the very wealthy who own the vast majority of corporate stock from future generations who will have to pay off the deficit that the US incurred due to Trump’s policies.
Any economic growth that took place under the Trump Administration was due to deficit spending, not his economic policies. He inherited a strong economy when he came into office.
A majority of both the House and Senate including some Republicans voted to impeach Trump for using the power of his Office to influence Ukraine for Trump’s political gain. The evidence supporting the case for his impeachment was overwhelming.
The case for his impeachment after January 6th was also overwhelming. There is no doubt he tried to falsely overturn a fair and impartial election and essentially end our Democracy. He has confirmed he was told he lost the election but chose to deny it.
He has multiple indictments against him. To bring an indictment of the magnitude, the prosecutors must believe they have strong evidence to support the indictment.
He is fighting a civil suit accused of committing fraud by overvaluing his assets to obtain more favorable loan rates. The testimony I have seen so far confirm he so did.
Trump’s position on women’s health care rights is undeniable, women should not have any personal health care rights. His Supreme Court Justices went against years of judicial history and voted to restrict Woman’s health care rights. Less well known are the directives he implemented while President. For example, halting pay data collection on the EEO-1 form which had previously provided documentation for equal pay for equal work. Another example is weakening Title IX which among other things, put women at a greater risk for sexual assault.
Trump does not accept the science behind climate change which has led to among other things, the increasing frequency and cost of natural disasters. The Brookings Institute found 74 actions that wreaked environmental protection under his Presidency.
Trump completely mismanaged the pandemic. Presidents Bush and Obama planned for the possibility of a pandemic. Trump dismantled the pandemic team Obama put together, viewed the virus as not being a threat, lied about the effect it was having, suggested non-medical treatments for dealing with the virus, and worst of all contradicted health care professional on treatment and dealing with the pandemic.
The 2021 Annual HIstorian’s Presidential Survey out of 45 Presidencies ranked Trump 41st or the 4th worst President on record.
I think there are two very large groups which overlap and have unwavering support for Trump, White Nationalists and Evangelicals. There is a significant overlap between these two groups. According to one poll, Trump won 76% of the white Evangelical vote in the 2020 election.
The PRRI (Public Religion Research Institute) recently published research on “Structural Racism and Discrimination in America”. I would suggest all review the Report. PRRI developed a Structural Racism Index. They then surveyed various groups using the Index.
The median score for all Americans was 0.45.
The score for White Republicans was 0.67, the score for White Independents was 0.48 and White Democrats was 0.24.
The score for White Evangelical Protestants was 0.64, the highest of any religious group. Interestingly and not surprising, Religious Unaffiliated score was 0.33. This may say a lot about religion in America.
Christian Nationalism is a vision of a white Christian America. A different PRRI and Brookings Institution study found the following:
Over 60% of white evangelical Protestants are either Christian nationalism adherents (29%) or sympathizers (35%).
Over 50% of Republicans are either adherents (21%) or sympathizers (33%) to a Christian America. By comparison, about 10% all Americans adhere to the tenets of Christian nationalism and 19% who are sympathetic.
Going back to the polls, the two above mentioned groups will ignore all the reasons for not supporting Trump, and vote for him because they believe Trump supports their core causes, white nationalism and a Evangelical America. Add in Republicans who will vote for Republicans irregardless of performance or issues, and Trump has a substantial base which is not going to change and the polls reflect this.
For all the reasons outlined above, I believe Trump was a terrible President in his first term and also believe if he were to be elected for a second term, he would be worse. Independent Moderates like myself must take a stand and vote against Trump along with any candidate who supports him, his policies and most important his attack on American democracy.